Current situation. Survey, focus and analyze.

Current situation. Survey, focus and analyze.
Look broadly at the country and then zoom in to the situation you want to explore more deeply Conduct an analysis of of the situation you want to explore more deeply identifying actors, structures, strategies, and processes.
Identify the key driving factors of the conflict. Applying a conflict analysis tool, such as conflict mapping (Create a conflict map)
As you complete your analysis, please consider the following questions:
What conflict management structures exist?
What strategies do they reflect?
What processes have been used to move from destructive to constructive? What is working / not working? Why?
Future Scenarios. Develop possible future scenarios
What are the key uncertainties (risks) and factors that may have an impact on the course of the conflict situation? Include both positive and negative factors. Note: given your constraints, this will not be an exhaustive list, yet it should be a realistic and representational.
Identify the scope of your futures analysis. Include the time horizon you are considering and why.
As you look forward, who are the major stakeholders? Do they change? Remain the same?
What are the basic trends both within the immediate context of the situation and external to it that may be significant?
Construct initial scenarios/themes for presentation to your colleagues and management.
Using key uncertainties and factors, develop stories that reflect a minimum best case, worst case and status quo situations as you look ahead. (If you identify 2 key uncertainties, you may want to develop a 2×2 matrix of possibilities yielding 4 potential futures).
What might trigger the conflict to move in each of these directions? What change (or lack of change) of factors/dynamics might lead to this scenario? Be sure to consider endogenous and exogenous factors as described by da Rocha in his videos on this module’s Resources page.
What are the implications for action of each of the scenarios developed? For each:
What insight does the scenario offer for possible intervention points?
What key factor(s)/variables would you recommend monitoring to know how the situation is evolving toward one of these three scenarios?
Value of process. As part of your presentation, reflect on the value of the scenario planning process
What value/challenges did you find in the scenario planning process your Task Force conducted?
If the scenario planning project was to move forward, what additional stakeholders would you recommend including in the next step of the planning process? Why?
Recognizing that your effort was limited by time and participants, what are two questions you would want to explore further?

Current situation. Survey, focus and analyze.

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